Thursday, November 5, 2015

How much money will Mets spend this winter?

Sandy Alderson said Wednesday that he expects his 2016 payroll to be somewhat higher than the roughly $100 million mark it opened at the previous season.

The Mets have roughly $92 million in payroll commitments for 2016, according to ESPN reporter Adam Rubin’s math (Nov. 3, 2015).

“Our payroll started close to $100 million, and I would expect that our payroll going into 2016 would be higher than that,” Alderson said after announcing a new two-year contract for manager Terry Collins. “We ended up higher than that because of the additions we made at the deadline.”

According to SpotRac.com, the Mets spent $120 million on their big-league roster over the course of the entire season, which ranked 15 out of 30 teams (Nov. 4, 2015). The Royals, who won the World Series, were No. 14 with $125 million.

Matthew Cerrone
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In looking at Rubin’s numbers, and reading Alderson’s words, I assume this to mean he’s allowing himself around $15 million, maybe $20 million, in off season acquisitions. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see him trade Juan Lagares or Jon Niese to free up extra capital. Because, in reading between the lines, I don’t think he’s too worried about improving his defense. He should be, but he isn’t. The sense I get talking and listening to insiders is that he wants a versatile lineup with some pop that can score like they did in August and September, which he can couple to his dominant pitching staff. In the end, if the Mets are striking batters out like they do, there will be less balls in play to boot making defense less important. And, if they score three to four runs a night, they most likely win. It’s a good theory, unless of course you’re playing the Royals (or Pirates).

Alderson is not going to ink any one to a super crazy, long-term deal. I just don’t see it happening. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Zach Wheeler will combine to earn around $15 million next season. In 2018, I see them combining to make around $40 million, the same year David Wright – at 34 years old – will be making $20 million. So, I get why they’re being cautious about long term commitments. I also don’t see any big-time free agent fitting in to what the Mets need.

That said, there is clearly a window here to maximize the potential of this starting rotation, the organization has momentum, and I hope they don’t restrain themselves for the sake of being smart three years from now. I haven’t dug deep in to names and planning. But, on the surface, I’m thinking, say, Ben Zobrist, one or two bench guys and a veteran reliever or two would already eclipse $15 million. If he were to add Ian Desmond, let’s say, it would totally blow the lid off that figure. Alderson says he wants to improve the offense, round out the roster and tweak the bullpen, so I hope he’s willing to adjust his numbers if needed. If not, after losing Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes, I don’t know how he avoids being in the same position this June as he was last season…


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