Matthew Cerrone
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I’ve stopped hoping Sandy Alderson will sign a major free agent to a monster deal, and you should do the same. I’m not saying you have to like it, or that it’s totally impossible, but the Hot Stove is easier when you accept this reality.
The fact is, the day Alderson was introduced in 2010, he talked about how long-term deals rarely work out and how foolish it is to have more than two or three guys on a roster earning the bulk of the team’s available money. He mentioned it again last week…
“They’re not something we like to do,” he repeated, when asked if he might give a mega-deal to a free agent this winter. “Those contracts don’t often work out, but we’ll make those decisions as they’re presented.”
I realize there are people who think this position is forced on him by a tight budget. The budget is tight, that’s true. However, I believe he’d have the same approach even if told he could spend $200 million on his roster. Remember, he and his staff are people of research, evidence and principal, and – the fact is – most long-term deals in baseball end up being busts. He gave one to David Wright, but that had as much to do with Wright’s role off the field as it does on it. Wright was a rare case, as he entered negotiations already labeled ‘The Face of the Franchise.’
Instead, I expect Alderson to continue pursuing players that are willing to accept short-term deals, with four years being the longest. This is what he’s done in the past, and I don’t see that changing this winter. The Mets flirted with Robinson Cano in 2013, but I’m convinced that only would’ve happened had Cano been willing to take an expensive, one-year pillow contract before re-testing the market the next winter.
Alderson pushed the limits of his comfort zone when he guaranteed a fourth year to Curtis Granderson, whose contract totaled $60 million. Otherwise, outside of Wright, Alderson has only given out deals of two years or less, such as to Michael Cuddyer, Bartolo Colon, Frank Francisco and Chris Young.
Is free-agent OF Jayson Heyward the exception?
Man, I hope so… I see Mets fans demanding Alderson pursue Heyward, who is expected to get a 7- to-10-year deal worth around $20 million a season. He would be an amazing fit and could be a player that bucks the trend. Heyward will be entering his mid-30’s at the end of the deal he inks this winter, instead of pushing 40 like most people in his position. He’d be a marquee player in a marquee market and a massive upgrade for the Mets, who could then trade Juan Lagares with, say, Jon Niese, to acquire another upgrade and help costs.
It makes so much sense to sign Heyward it feels like a no brainer, especially for a team in a pitcher’s park, with an amazing pitching staff and postseason plans in New York. However, I’m not the GM, so I don’t expect it to happen. I do think Alderson and his staff will explore it. But, unless Heyward is willing to take $20 million a year for just four years, I don’t see a deal getting done. I would love for Alderson to change his stance, but I won’t believe it’s possible until I see it.
Instead, prognosticators have the Mets going a different direction. They’ve already been linked to free agent outfielders Denard Span, Dexter Fowler and Gerrardo Parra, all of whom will be looking for deals around three-to-four years. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors believes the Mets are the best fit for free-agent SS Ian Desmond, though he sees him getting a five-year deal (Nov. 7, 2015).
Is this good enough?
I tend to give Alderson the benefit of the doubt. The fact is, he’s right, long-term deals rarely pan out and, despite how I might do things, he did rebuild a roster and get to the World Series within five seasons of taking over. Is that approach sustainable? That remains to be seen. However, it’s worked so far. I fear that, while his methodology and strategy might be good for transitioning a team in to a contender, I have major questions that his style can get a team over the top. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s what this winter and next season will be about…
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from Metsblog http://ift.tt/1HFybka
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