Friday, November 13, 2015

What should the Mets do at SS?

Matthew Cerrone
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In the event the Mets want to bring in a new shortstop, their realistic options are going to be either free-agents Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera or trading for Starlin Castro (Cubs) or Erick Aybar (Braves).

I’d love to make a deal for Astros infielder Marwin Gonzalez, Cubs SS Javier Baez, Blue Jays SS Ryan Goins or Troy Tulowitzki, Reds SS Zack Cozart, or Rangers SS Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus. They all can be had, and will pop up in rumors, but each will either bring on a ton of money, present a complicated deal or cost top prospects.

The Options

Starlin Castro: In return for Castro, the Cubs are rumored to want an experienced, young, cost-controlled pitcher that can immediately slot in to their rotation next season. For instance, last season I hear they repeatedly asked the Padres for Tyson Ross. For the Mets, this would be Zack Wheeler, who I actually think might be too much. So, maybe the Mets could get something back in the deal, either another player or money to offset the $38 million due to Castro the next four seasons. Castro is athletic and has good hands, but he is known for making weird mistakes in the field. He’s a free swinger, but open to suggestion. He puts balls in play, and will never be a high OBP guy. But, when he’s locked in, he can be a dynamic hitter. He got benched last season by Joe Maddon, but then played his way back in the lineup. In other words, he’s a total enigma. But, a change of scenery could be exactly what he is needing. I’m still intrigued…

USATSI_8840104_110579513_lowresEric Aybar: The Braves are clearly tanking 2016, so they have no need for Aybar, who they just acquired from the Angels for Andrelton Simmons. He’s making just $8.5 million next season, after which he’ll be a free agent. To me, he’s the perfect short-term option. And, if he does well, I bet he can be retained for a reasonable deal. Aybar had a very good 2014, but struggled last season. Yet, he’s a good bet for at least batting .270, 25 doubles, some speed and a good contact rate. He’s not the fielder he once was, but he knows the position, knows where to be, and he’ll make all the routine plays, day in and day out. He’s stability and at a position that, for the Mets, has been anything but… Most important, he isn’t too expensive, he’s experienced, he’s been to the postseason four times and he’s still just 31 years old.

Asdrubal Cabrera: He took a one-year deal last winter, when the Mets had a bit of interest. He struggled during the first half of the season, but got himself together after the All Star break, during which he struck out less, hit with more power and played better than expected in the field. Basically, after a rough year and a half, he looked like the player he was in 2011 and 2012, which is a guy that plays below-average defense and makes up for it by driving the ball hard and for occasional power. He’s on par with Wilmer Flores, who, frankly, could remain at shortstop, while Cabrera takes over at second. In either case, they’d be an offense-first, defense-challenged middle infield, but could actually work well for this team.

Ian Desmond: I’m only interested in him if he’s willing to do a one-year deal. Otherwise, I’d prefer any one of the above options. The Mets should be very appealing to him, since they’re an up-and-coming team in the division he knows well, plus he will not have to face their pitching 19 times a season. However, if he’s holding out for a five- or six-year deal, I’m not interested. He doesn’t walk and has always had a bad approach at the plate. If he’s not hitting .285 with 20 HR, like he did earlier in his career, than his fielding is a problem. The Mets know him, they’ve watched him a lot the last few seasons. So, if they feel he’s worth it, I’ll trust them. But, man, I’d worry the whole time he was signing the contract. I just have no faith in who he will be…

What would I do?

In the end, I’d make a move for Aybar, assuming Desmond will not take a one-year deal. Aybar is not great, but he’s stable, which is what I want most at shortstop. I think this pitching staff deserves an experienced guy at the infield’s most important position. And, though not great, he’s quintessential, experienced and capable of a 1-2 WAR season. He and Flores (Herrera) will do fine on the middle infield together…

However, if the Braves refuse to deal Aybar in the division, I guess I have to sign Cabrera for two years and $20 million, knowing he could also play second base and maybe even third. I don’t have the guts to deal Wheeler for Castro and Desmond is too costly for that level unknown.



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