Matthew Cerrone
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1) Contact vs. Swing-and-Miss vs. Infield D: “The Royals put the ball in play better than any team in the majors,” is something that has been said a thousand times this week by writers, reporters and talk show hosts. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz have thrown 55 innings and struck out 71 batters this postseason. Thankfully, the Mets aces are more than just fastballs, as they throw a lot of secondary pitches and they do it in any count, regardless of the situation.
In terms of being intimidated, don’t count on it. The Royals have picked apart almost every top starting pitcher in the American League this season. And, they’re 18-5 their last two postseasons in games not started by Madison Bumgarner. The big concern I have is how will the Mets do when asked to handle so many balls in play? Again, they’ve been fortunate enough to have fewer chances than usual, because the pitching staff has been striking guys out. In this series, though, I expect that to change, which means more balls hit to Wilmer Flores, Daniel Murphy and the corner outfield spots. This, plus KC’s stellar base running, is going to put extra emphasis on how well the Mets play up the middle, which has been a weakness all season.
2) Bullpen vs. Bullpen: KC’s bullpen is their biggest strength, while it may be New York’s biggest weakness. As Mets manager Terry Collins’ mentor, Jim Leyland, always said, “The best way to have a good bullpen is to keep them in the bullpen.” And, thankfully for Collins, the Royals have averaged the third-fewest pitches per plate appearance from March to October, according to ESPN Stats & Info. So, unless KC is banging hits and scoring early, Mets starters have a chance to go deep into games.
3) Will the Mets run? Yes, but not between pitches. Their stolen bases in the NLCS were a direct result of how bad the Cubs are at defending against the running game. But, I think that’s OK. The mere threat, or idea they could go in the World Series, will help them enough to maybe force KC out of position a bit, and help distract pitchers. KC’s Salvador Perez is incredible at throwing runners out, so it would be foolish to go on him. However, the Royals are so good in the field, it might help to hit and run, go more on contact, take large leads, and force them into a position to throw a ball away, make a mistake, miss a cutoff man, etc. KC has great outfield arms, but the Mets have shown they’re smart when advancing on balls to the outfield. Speaking of stolen bases, the Royals were second in the AL, so it’s possible they could force the Mets to make throws as well.
4) The DH: Royals DH Kendrys Morales is a straight DH at this point, so his big bat will be on the bench when the series shifts to the National League and Citi Field. They could chance it and put Morales at first base, pushing Eric Hosmer to the outfield. But, they rely so heavily on their defense, it’s hard to imagine they go in that direction. Instead, I bet Morales is on the bench at Citi Field, which will weaken KC’s lineup. At the same time, though Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe are not world beaters, they’re better hitters than any of the Mets starting pitchers, so adding them to the lineup as a DH in KC will benefit the Mets.
5) Johnny Cueto: The Game 2 starter for the Royals was a mess during the last three months of the regular season. However, he had his best start of the year in Game 5 of the ALDS. Then, he was back to being bad, delivering a two-inning, eight-run outing in the ALCS. So, who will show up in Game 2 of the World Series? Good Cueto or bad Cueto? And, in either case, will the Royals have the guts to start him in a possible Game 6?
In the end, the Mets have better starting pitching (they have the edge in every game), while I think the Royals have a better, more versatile lineup. However, the benches and bullpens, together, are probably comparable. The series is likely going to come down to how well the Mets defend against Kansas City in the field and on the bases, and then come down to how well New York’s bullpen does before handing the ball over to Jeurys Familia. I like the Mets chances earlier in the series. I think if they’re gonna win it, it’ll be in five. But, the longer the series goes on, the more balls that get put in play, the more chances there are for an error, the more times the bullpen door opens up, it becomes a significantly more difficult task.
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