Matthew Cerrone
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Lucas Duda’s timing is off. He had five home runs in three days toward the end of September, but has since collected only two hits in his last 32 plate appearances, including 17 strike outs. And, in the 21 games before the late-September home run burst, he’d been hitting .203 in his previous 21 games. He’s either hot or cold. There is no in between and, right now, Duda is ice cold.
Instead of starting Duda against LHP Jon Lester, I’d go with Michael Cuddyer at first base. Duda has looked terrible against left-handed pitching the last couple of months, despite hitting well earlier in the season. It’s not that I think Cuddyer will go 4-for-4, I just can’t see Duda turning things around against a veteran lefty like Lester. Duda will get plenty of at-bats later in the series against righties. However, in Game 1, Cuddyer gives the lineup a better chance to score.
Similarly, as much as I love Michael Conforto, I’d like to see Juan Lagares in center field starting Game 1. Lagares has been hitting left-handed pitching quite well of late, especially in the NLDS. Plus, his defensive skills and experience will be needed in Wrigley Field, which can be a whirlwind during windy, chilly nights in October. I love Conforto, but he’ll get plenty of chances to do damage this series, including the next night against RHP Jake Arietta. But, in Game 1, I’d go with Lagares.
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